WHAT would happen if a country’s government suddenly collapsed? Could the United States be seen as an “exporter of terrorism”? What if the CIA’s counter-terrorism operations all fail?
These are some of the awkward questions the intelligence agency’s shadowy Red Cell was designed to answer.
In a gripping report for Foreign Policy, author Micah Zenko has revealed how the experimental unit transformed the intelligence community since it was set up after 9/11 with the express aim to “p*** off” senior officials.
The Red Cell has freedoms other government agencies can only dream about. Its work is creative, surprising and controversial — not words you would typically associate with a department of the US government.
MAKE PEOPLE UNCOMFORTABLE
Then-Director of Central Intelligence George Tenet created the unit the very day after the devastating September 11 terrorist attack in 2001. The White House was convinced further plots to harm America were being devised, and it wanted to be ready for absolutely anything.
Tenet recruited a team of people who thought “outside the box” and had the brains to anticipate surprises through “alternative analysis.” The Red Cell was given unprecedented licence to make people uncomfortable, disrupt the status quo and criticise policies at the highest level.
A review of pre-9/11 analysis showed that other CIA departments almost never looked at alternative theories because they didn’t have the “luxury” of time, and were expected to provide the official, authoritative version of events.
The Red Cell, named by Tenet to sound “alluring and conspiratorial”, would be entirely focused on giving a left-of-centre, critical view of the world. In 2012, then-CIA director David Petraeus told the unit to take on the agency’s biggest challenges and “shock us.”
UNORTHODOX METHODS
The unit was at first a motley crew of junior and senior analysts, a case officer and an National Security Agency employee — none were terrorism experts and only one a Middle East specialist.
They were chosen for their originality, analytical genius, knowledge of history and world affairs and unique ways of looking at the world. They caused resentment from the start, for being too inexperienced, too white, too male, too troublesome and too free to do exactly what they wanted.
But that freedom was what made the cell brilliant. It asked the questions no one else wanted to think about. It looked at every possible “what if,” conduct “premortems” to anticipate all the things that could go wrong with plans and try to model enemies to find their weaknesses.
Red Cell analysts usually set their own agenda based on upcoming events, mainstream and social media and talks with an eclectic mix of experts. As the cell has become more respected over the years, academics and senior intelligence officials are increasingly happy to get their most revolutionary ideas heard.
The cell holds a biannual “Idea-Palooza” along with virtual brainstorming on its classified blog. Occasionally it is handed projects from above, one of which was the question of how to boost European support for war in Afghanistan in 2010. The conclusion? Get Barack Obama and Afghan women to make public appeals.
CLASSIFIED CLICKBAIT
The reports and memos prepared by the cell sound like articles that might appear in a glossy magazine or pop up in your Facebook feed. There was “How Osama Might Try to Sink the US Economy” and “The View from Osama’s Cave,” and later “What if Foreigners See the United States as an ‘Exporter of Terrorism’?”, published by Wikileaks in 2010.
There was even a stab at a graphic novel, although it was never formally distributed, with a designer employed to ensure all Red Cell material looked slick and modern.
In 2012, members met staff from Foreign Policy to gain an understanding of how to write eye-catching headlines, produce viral listicles and attractive photo stories — techniques then-managing editor Blake Hounshell called “clickbait.”
The cell has achieved its aim of producing required reading for every senior intelligence official.
Every release is preceded by the following note: “This memo was prepared by the CIA Red Cell, which has been charged by the Director of Intelligence with taking a pronounced ‘out-of-the-box’ approach that will provoke thought and offer an alternative viewpoint on the full range of analytic issues.”
SCIENCE-FICTION THAT STIRS THE MIND
The Red Cell has grown from a ragtag group of eager analysts looking at terrorism threats to a large and powerful team that takes on a wide range of the trickiest global questions. It is now embedded in the heart of the CIA and posts there are coveted by ambitious analysts, who typically spend three months to two years on the team, and get a thrilling opportunity to explore rebellious ways of thinking.
The unit still attracts criticism. No one is sure how useful all of its hypotheticals are, with ex-CIA director Michael Hayden admitting it was “a little too much like science fiction at times”, while confessing that he read everything it produced “because I wanted to have my mind stirred.”
Some intelligence experts say the memos don’t always add value, while a recent member acknowledged the “hit rate” — ones that demonstrably affect policy — was about 50/50.
But the missteps, or relatively useless pieces of work, are part of what the Red Cell is. “Traditional oversight would kill its creativity,” said former acting CIA director Michael Morell. This agile, dynamic team produce some of the most vital and inspired thinking in the world.
Their ingenuity has infiltrated into other areas of the agency and they have forged close links with other groups in the intelligence world, especially other semi-independent “red teams” linked to the military.
The fact it is a “safe to fail” environment allows the Red Cell to be unconventional, challenging and brilliant. At the same time, its work is as well researched and meticulously sourced. These are the people who can change the course of history.
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